SULLIVAN'S SALVOS
May 10, 2018
Sullivan’s Salvos 5/15/18
In this edition:
*Green!
*Gina Haspel
*John Norris and Political Strategy
*Redistricting Geek Out
*Did You Know?
*Green!
Green is my favorite color. So as you might imagine, the weather of the past week has really improved my mood!
Iowa is SO verdant right now! Take a moment, if you can, and get out in the woods. It is beautiful!
*Gina Haspel
Gina Haspel is the President’s nominee to lead the CIA. Iowa’s two Senators will wholeheartedly support her. Because your crimes do not matter – no matter how heinous – if you are on their side.
The John McCain of 2018 is not the John McCain of the 1990s. But despite becoming more partisan, McCain remembers what it was like to spend five years as a POW. He has a very unique place from which to view this topic. We should listen to him on this issue. Fellow veteran Joni Ernst should listen to him on this issue.
If the world were a fair place, Haspel would be on trial for war crimes and destruction of records. Instead, she gets a promotion.
*John Norris and Political Strategy
I noted last week that I have endorsed John Norris for Governor. As you might expect, John wants to make our Regents institutions more affordable for Iowa’s children. I agree 100%! And that message plays very well in Johnson County. But Johnson County is booming.
The really concerning areas of Iowa are our “micropolitan” regions. These are cities of less than 50,000 that still serve as centers for health care, education, retail, and employment. And in Iowa, our micropolitan areas are struggling mightily!
Ottumwa, Mason City, Clinton, Fort Dodge, Burlington… you know the places we are talking about. These are places that supported the agriculture of the region, and provided lots of good paying union jobs. This was the home to the American Dream for almost 40 years.
Fast forward to today, and the ag industry has mechanized. A family farm used to be 160 acres, and provided a living for 2-3 generations at once. Now a small farm is over 1000 acres, and that really isn’t enough to support a single farmer. As those farm jobs have left, so have the people.
Things are even worse for the folks who held the union jobs. Those jobs are gone – some replaced by $9/hour service jobs, others not replaced at all. The retail jobs followed suit – shoppers chose to abandon the town square for the big boxes on the edge of town. Downtowns shriveled, and now Amazon has emptied out the big boxes. It is a grim scenario, and the people of Iowa’s micropolitan areas have lived it.
These places used to reliably vote Democratic. These regions had strong union density. Health care and community college workers supported Dems. Even many farm families voted Democratic, recalling the work of FDR and Henry Agard Wallace in saving them from the desperation of the Dust Bowl and Depression.
Tom Harkin once carried 83 counties in Iowa. Tom Vilsack won over 60. So did Chet Culver. Obama won Iowa carrying 53 counties in ’08; that slipped to 38 counties in ‘12. Recently? In 2016, Hillary Clinton only carried 6 counties. 2014 Gubernatorial nominee Jack Hatch only carried ONE! (Yes, that county was Johnson!)
Obviously, these are troubling trends for Democrats. It is true that some of this can be explained by migration patterns – many progressives have left rural Iowa for the Ames/Des Moines and Iowa City/Cedar Rapids regions. That makes those places even more likely to vote Democratic, while the places they leave behind are left even more Republican.
But that does not explain everything. Economics DO matter! We need a Governor who understands agriculture and has a plan for righting the ship. We need a Governor who can talk to farmers. We need a Governor who understands the economics of micropolitan Iowa and has a plan to improve these vital local economies.
If Democrats can make this case, and restore some hope, we can win back these areas. And when our plans result in better outcomes, we will reap the electoral results.
It is not as though the GOP has a plan for these areas. Tax cuts for the 1%, gut the schools, kick Grandma off Medicaid, and ruin the environment. How in the world does that help the people in these regions? That prescription is how we GOT where we are!
John Norris gets this. He knows how we move Iowa forward. It matters to all of us, urban and rural alike. That is one big reason that John Norris gets my vote.
*Redistricting Geek Out
I am a sucker for the whole redistricting process. I put more time and energy into it than most. I was recently set off by some population projections. So – here are a few of the things upon which I’m geeking out:
The US Census projections for 2020 have Iowa growing a tiny amount to 3.1 million people. Meanwhile, it projects Johnson County to hit 158,456! (We just hit 150,000.)
So, if Iowa is 3.1 million people, each Iowa House seat will contain approximately 31,300 people. If you divide 158,456 by 31,300, you get 5.1. That means Johnson County gets 5 full House Members!
Currently, Johnson County has 4 House seats completely contained within its borders. (Seats held by Representatives Mascher, Lensing, Jacoby, and Nielsen, respectively.) Five townships in the NE corner of the county plus the City of Solon make up another half a seat. That half, coupled with Cedar County, is the seat held by Representative Kauffman.
It seems to me that Johnson County will gain a seat, meaning we will have 5 House Members all to ourselves! I think that will be a very good development!
Iowa City (79,000) will be too large for 2 Reps, but not quite large enough for 3. Coralville (24,000) is not quite large enough to get a Rep all by itself, but it will be the functional equivalent. North Liberty (22,000) will be similar. Unincorporated Johnson County (23,000) is easier to split up, so that is undoubtedly what will happen.
On the Senate side, you just double things. So a population of 62,600 gets a seat. Johnson County will get 2.55 Senate seats after the 2020 Census, compared to our current 2.1.
That could play out many ways, but we know a couple things: Iowa City will have a Senate seat to itself. Another Senate seat will have at least 16,000 Iowa City residents. It would seem likely that two Senators would represent Johnson County only, while another represents one house seat in Johnson and one in a neighboring county.
We currently have two such arrangements; Senator Dvorsky has a District that is just over half Johnson County plus Cedar County, and Senator Kinney has a District that is half Johnson County, half Washington and Keokuk Counties. I would imagine that one of these arrangements remains, while the other goes away.
No matter what happens, the number of Johnson County voices in the Iowa Legislature looks to be growing. And that is fine by me!
*DID YOU KNOW? Iowa adopted a constitutional amendment in 1968 that makes gerrymandering illegal in Iowa. The amendment provided that both House and Senate districts be compact and contiguous and as nearly equal in population as possible. It also provides that reapportionment be done every 10 years following the census.
Anyone interested in learning more about County government should take a look at the County website-
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---Rod
posted by Rod Sullivan @ 11:27 AM
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