SULLIVAN'S SALVOS
November 10, 2022
Sullivan’s Salvos 11/15/22
In this edition:
*Election Recap
*”Good” vs. “Bad” Campaigns
*Monday Morning Quarterbacks
*Election Day as a Holiday?
*Kudos to Eastside Dems!
*Did You Know?
*Election Recap
The 2022 Election is mostly in the books. I spent dozens of hours knocking on doors; while I certainly didn’t get all the outcomes I had hoped for, it feels good knowing I gave it my best effort.
Turnout in Johnson County was just under 64,000, which amounts to just over 70%. This is pretty good by traditional measures, but obviously, you’d like to be over 90%. We’ll keep working on it.
Here it goes, race by race:
US Senate: Incumbent Republican Chuck Grassley defeated Mike Franken by a 56-44 margin.
Overall, the Senate was split 50-50 going into the election. Right now, we are waiting on Nevada, Arizona, and a run-off in Georgia to decide the final outcome. Democrats will need to win 2/3 to stay in control.
US House: In Iowa’s First District, Incumbent Republican Marianette Miller Meeks defeated Christina Bohannan 53-47.
In Iowa’s Second District, Incumbent Republican Ashley Hinson defeated Liz Mathis 54-46.
In Iowa’s Third District, Incumbent Democrat Cindy Axne looks as though she is going to lose by under 1% to challenger Zach Nunn. There are still ballots being counted here.
Overall, the US House was split 220 Dems, 212 Republicans, and 3 vacancies going into the election. Right now, it looks as though the GOP will take control, but only by a couple of votes! Stay tuned!
Governor: Incumbent Republican Kim Reynolds defeated Deirdre DeJear 58-40. In what might be considered surprises, longtime Attorney General Tom Miller (D) lost to Brenna Bird, and longtime State Treasurer Mike Fitzgerald (D) lost to Roby Smith, both by 51-49 margins. Paul Pate and Mike Naig won reelection, while State Auditor Rob Sand is hanging by a thread, with a 3,200 vote margin.
Iowa Senate: Locally, Democrat Janice Weiner won comfortably, 82-18. Incumbent Democrat Kevin Kinney lost 54-46.
Overall, Republicans held a 32-18 majority going into the election. It looks like that is going to be 34-16 going forward.
Iowa House: Locally, Democrats Adam Zabner and Elinor Levin were elected to represent Iowa City, while Incumbent Democrats Amy Nielsen and Dave Jacoby won seats in North Liberty and Coralville, respectively.
Overall, Republicans held a 60-40 majority going into the election. That may have increased to 63-37.
Constitutional Amendment: Iowans voted on an Amendment to the Constitution that would make it almost impossible to pass any laws regulating guns. Unfortunately, that passed 65-35.
As you can see, Iowa was a Red Wave; the rest of the US, not so much. It will be more and more difficult for Johnson County moving forward in this environment. We are going to need to find ways to reach out directly to the Federal government for help.
Locally, the Supervisor Race was the high-profile race. Democrats Jon Green and V Fixmer–Oraiz handily defeated Republicans Phil Hemingway and Jamie Bradshaw. A particular congratulations to V, who becomes the first Trans person elected in Johnson County!
Scott Finlayson will become our new Treasurer in January, while Rachel Zimmermann Smith becomes our new County Attorney. Kim Painter was elected to another term as Recorder. I am really looking forward to working with all these fine folks!
Congratulations to all the winners, and thanks to everyone who threw their hat into the ring. We have a lot of work ahead!
*”Good” vs. “Bad” Campaigns
Ever heard of someone who won an election yet ran a lousy campaign? Me, either! Since we are deep into the political season, I want to share one of my political pet peeves:
I get really tired of all the Monday morning quarterbacking. If the candidate wins, they “ran a great campaign”. If they lose, the campaign was “terrible”.
Sports analogies get overused in politics, but I think it is apt to use one here. Picture the game of golf. Sometimes you play very poorly, and can get beat by anyone. Sometimes you play poorly and your opponent plays even worse – then you win. Conversely, sometimes you play well and win. It is also possible to play your best and still get beat.
This also happens in politics, though it is rarely acknowledged. Yes, sometimes the loser ran a poor campaign. But just as frequently, they ran a good campaign and still got beat. It happens.
The “experts” who are commenting on these campaigns – their punditry is usually just hot air.
Yes, there are campaigns that are well run, and there are some that aren’t. But I rarely hear anything other than fawning over winners and piling on losers. That is not analysis!
*Monday Morning Quarterbacks
You know how this phrase got started…. It is easy to sit in judgment after the fact, and complain about what a quarterback (or coach) SHOULD have done. I am sometimes guilty of this; we all are.
But I see a difference between a loyal fan questioning her team and a person who did nothing to support the cause. I may question something the Hawkeyes do, but my love of the Hawkeyes runs deep. I support them emotionally, financially, etc. In my mind, I have paid my dues, and therefore earned the right to comment.
The elections are over, and now it is time for the Monday Morning Quarterbacks of the political world to rear their ugly heads. Like the football variety, they seem to know what should have happened after the fact.
Both Republicans and Democrats have plenty of these folks. They can tell you exactly what Grassley or Franken SHOULD have done.
So, my question to the MMQs: Did you make any calls? Did you knock any doors? Did you contribute any money? Did you write any letters? Did you pay your dues in any way?
The people who suffer most from the slings and arrows are the local political parties themselves. Apart from several temporary college-aged staff people, local political parties are made up of local people. They are volunteers. And yes, often they do not operate as well as they could. But you know what? Half the battle is showing up! Don’t like how your local party operates? Join it, and try to make some changes.
There is an old saying: “If you don’t vote, don’t complain”. But in reality, that saying is not the law. As Americans, we are free to say just about anything we want. So get ready to listen to a whole bunch of people who should be quarterbacks and Senators.
*Election Day as a Holiday?
It has become very popular amongst Democrats to push for Election Day as a National Holiday. I think this is a mistake in priorities.
Election Day is a holiday in many countries. What do people do on said holiday? They travel, of course. Who travels? The only people who can – people with money.
So Election Day in these countries becomes a huge day for eating out, buying gas, going to movies, shopping, etc. What is required to have bustling restaurants, gas stations, malls, and theaters? Staff. Low wage, low benefit staff. Who now are under even greater pressure to work that day.
We might actually get LOWER turnout if Election Day was a holiday! The people who would benefit already have enough agency to go vote when it suits them. They don’t NEED a holiday to vote. The people who need time to vote need more days of early voting, more convenient satellite locations, and evening voting hours. That is what we should be prioritizing!
Please don’t fall for the “Election Day as a Holiday” trap! That is not the cure for what ails us!
*Kudos to Eastside Dems!
Another election is over, and once again the Iowa City Eastside Democrats put on a virtuoso performance! Their work is truly unparalleled.
A huge thanks to Sharon, Tara, Gail, Becky, Jodi, Sue, Patti, Linda, and others for your amazing work!
*DID YOU KNOW? Dating back to 1862, the incumbent President’s party has lost seats in the US House in all but 3 elections.
Anyone interested in learning more about County government should take a look at the County website-
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---Rod
posted by Rod Sullivan @ 9:27 AM
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