SULLIVAN'S SALVOS
November 16, 2022
Sullivan’s Salvos 11/22/22
In this edition:
*Happy Thanksgiving!
*What Happened to Iowa?
*Did You Know?
*Happy Thanksgiving!
Happy Thanksgiving to Salvos readers! In many ways, Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday. (Imagine that coming from a fat guy, huh?)
Actually, I love the idea of giving thanks. It is a simple act that does not happen enough.
While I am at it – thanks to all of you who read Salvos each week. And a special thanks to those of you who follow up by sharing your thoughts. I appreciate it! Happy Thanksgiving!
*What Happened to Iowa?
I had a couple of Salvos readers ask me, “What happened?” regarding Tuesday’s red wave through Iowa. One was talking about just Tuesday; one was talking about the past 50 years.
While I am flattered that they care what I think, it is probably worth noting that I am no expert. But I have some explanations that I find persuasive. So let’s start there.
First, a little history is important. Iowa is a state that has typically been led by Republicans. There were only two windows EVER – one in the 60s and one from ’06-’10 – where Iowa Democrats held a trifecta of the House, Senate, and Governor. Democrats typically did not run things, but made up a large enough minority that the GOP needed them to govern. So compromises were struck.
More importantly, the Republicans of my youth were a VERY different party. For one, they supported education almost as much as the Democrats; in individual cases, even more. Most Iowa Republicans would have been considered moderates; some, notably longtime Governor Bob Ray, would be viewed as a liberal today. Newt Gingerich had not come along yet with the idea of “zero sum game” politics. Negotiations were the order of the day, and that is what you got.
Honestly, it is pretty hard to argue the results. Iowa was #1 in education. The economy was strong. Iowa’s “live and let live” approach put us decades, sometimes centuries, ahead of other states on civil rights matters. The budget was in good shape. You could do a lot worse. But the Iowa Republican Party has changed dramatically, and with it, our state.
Now let’s move to the work of Iowa State Economist Dave Swenson. I love his work! It doesn’t always tell me what I want to hear, but it is always enlightening. A few years ago Swenson began talking about “micropolitan” areas of Iowa. These are those cities in the 20,000-30,000 population range that do not serve as suburbs to larger cities. They are typically home to a hospital, community college, and serve as a regional employment center. Iowa has several of these places – Fort Dodge, Mason City, Ottumwa, Clinton, Burlington, Muscatine, Ft. Madison/Keokuk, Marshalltown, Newton, and maybe 1-2 more. (The definition doesn’t fit perfectly everywhere.)
If you look at those cities in the 1960s, each was home to a thriving manufacturing base. And most of those manufacturing jobs were union jobs. People in these micropolitan cities (and the smaller cities near them) lived the classic American Dream.
When things were going well, voters in these areas supported Democrats. Democrats supported the unions, and made sure the schools were good. Thousands of Iowa moms and dads watched proudly as their sons and daughters got diplomas from ISU, UNI, and Iowa. All was well.
What happened? Manufacturers had trouble competing with Germany and Japan. Manufacturers like Maytag that once cared deeply about these communities decided to instead put shareholder profits first. Good union jobs were lost. Then the farm crisis hit. Manufacturers like Deere made deep cuts. Unions were broken at meatpacking plants. Locally owned banks disappeared. Then NAFTA put the final nail in the coffin. Jobs that used to be in micropolitan Iowa were now in Mexico and China.
Communities did the best they could. Many made huge efforts at job creation. Unfortunately, they were often trading a $20/hour union manufacturing job for a $9/hour telemarketing gig. Bottom line? Large numbers of unemployed and underemployed people were stuck. Poverty increased, and with it, crime and drug abuse. Many of the college educated folks moved away. Properties and public spaces were less well-maintained. Property values dropped, and with them, funding for schools and roads. The community becomes a less desirable place to live, and even more people move away. It is a downward spiral.
Those that are left are now poorer and less educated. They feel as though they got screwed. Because they did. So, they go to the ballot box looking for someone to blame. In this case, Dems took the hit. Did they deserve all the blame? Definitely not. Not even the majority of the blame. But they were gutless while corporations ran roughshod over our state. Losing big was the result.
If I had to blame one person? I’d blame Bill Clinton. But it isn’t that easy. The problems began in the late 70s. Then Iowa faced amazing struggles in the 80s, before Clinton was even on the national scene. It wasn’t one thing or one person that got us here, and it will not be one person or one thing that fixes everything.
Don’t tell that to the GOP, though. They are great at casting blame. Whose fault is this? Gays, trans folks, people of color, immigrants, non-Christians, women getting abortions, welfare moms, teacher’s unions, etc. There is ample anger out there, and instead of focusing that anger on Chuck Grassley (who has overseen this shit show) they focus their anger on vulnerable minorities. It is evil, but effective.
The two Obama elections gave us a momentary reprieve from this slide. Why? An incredible candidate with a message of hope following a lackluster and corrupt Bush II administration. But then the House and Senate (including Grassley) decided to sabotage Obama at the expense of the American people. Obama could not deliver as much as people needed, let alone hoped for. This led to even greater anger.
Let’s stop talking politics and look at demographics. Look at the populations of these micropolitan areas since 1960. Most have lost people. If they have not lost population, it is only because of immigration, which many old timers resent. Talk to someone who has moved to the fast-growing cities or suburbs in Iowa. Everyone who lives in Tiffin is originally from Sigourney, or Mount Pleasant, or Oelwein, or Montezuma. You get the idea. Iowa is not growing as a state; people are simply moving from certain parts of Iowa to other parts where greater opportunities exist.
Iowa’s micropolitan areas used to reliably vote 60% Democrat. They now vote 60% Republican. Do the math: 30,000 voters in these counties. 18,000 used to vote Democratic. Now 18,000 vote Republican. That is a 12,000 vote swing each place. Multiply that by the 10 micropolitan areas. That is a vote swing of 120,000 statewide. This is where 120,000 voters switched from Democrats to Republicans. That is the ballgame, folks! Grassley won by 150,000 votes. I just found you 120,000 of them!
It is not just the micropolitan areas, either. Counties like Dubuque, Scott, and Woodbury are not as Democratic as they used to be, either. It is pretty much the same formula, just in a more populous place.
Obviously, this did not change overnight. And it will not change back overnight. Structurally, every day we spend in this deep red status makes it harder to crawl back out of the hole we have dug.
But we will get there. Someday. Democrats just have to keep fighting for the people in this story. Do what is right. That is always the answer. Sooner or later, things will turn. I just hope we learn some lessons along the way.
*DID YOU KNOW? The annual tradition (which I detest) of a “Presidential Pardon" for a turkey began under President Reagan.
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---Rod
posted by Rod Sullivan @ 1:03 PM
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